The Cheltenham Festival, eagerly awaited by racing enthusiasts, is set to begin on March 12th, 2024, with the opening day generating considerable excitement.
| Supreme Novices Horse | SupremeOdds |
|---|---|
| Ballyburn | 5/4 |
| Tullyhill | 9/2 |
| Mystical Power | 7/1 |
| Firefox | 7/1 |
| Jeriko Du Reponet | 9/1 |
| Slade Steel | 14/1 |
The festival kicks off with the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, a race previously won by Constitution Hill in 2022 and Marine Nationale in 2023.
Both horses are top contenders for this year’s festival, with high expectations in the Champion Hurdle and Arkle, respectively.
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Supreme Novices Hurdle Trends – Age, Course & Distance, Ratings
In the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, open to horses aged four and older, it’s advisable to focus on those aged five or six. This is because 11 of the past 12 winners fell within this age range, striking a sweet spot between youthful energy and mature prowess.
When it comes to betting odds, while only four of the last 12 Supreme winners were race favorites, the majority of champions typically come from the top three in the betting market, with 10 out of the 12 fitting this criterion.
Recent performance is crucial, as evidenced by the fact that 11 out of the last 12 winners won their final race before the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.
Nearly all champions (10 out of 12) had their last race within 66 days prior to the Supreme, highlighting the importance of maintaining form and fitness.
Certain races have proven to be key indicators of success in the Supreme.
The Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown, for instance, has a solid track record, with all four horses that participated in it going on to win the Supreme.
The Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown is another noteworthy precursor, with its two winners who entered the Supreme also achieving victory.
Experience at Cheltenham can be beneficial but not essential. About five of the past 12 winners had previously raced at Cheltenham.
Competence over distances between 15 to 17 furlongs is also vital, as all recent champions had multiple runs and victories over these distances.
A strong background in hurdling is key, with most winners having several runs and victories in hurdle races.
Specifically, 10 of the last 12 champions had at least three previous hurdle runs, eight had four or more, and 11 had won at least twice in hurdle races.
A high rating is common among winners, with 10 of the last 12 champions having a rating of 148 or higher.
Who do we fancy for the Supreme?
While there’s some skepticism about Jeriko Du Reponet’s buzz, Ballyburn solidified his reputation at the DRF at Leopardstown in early February, impressively leading the pack by at least seven lengths with ease.
Yet, Firefox deserves attention, especially as he shifts back to the 2m distance, opting for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle over other hurdle races like the Baring Bingham.
Firefox’s victory over Ballyburn at Fairyhouse in December, and a respectable performance when stretched to 2m4f in a Grade 1 race, losing to Readin Tommy Wrong, suggests a strong potential at the shorter 2m distance.
The Fairyhouse win is particularly relevant given the track’s similarities to Cheltenham.
It’s been some time since a well-priced each-way bet has triumphed in the festival’s traditional opener.
This year, the Gordon Elliott-trained Firefox could very well be the one to watch.
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